Bitcoin (BTC) – Bearish risks are amplifying with the price tiptoeing across the middle-line of the regression channel
Posted on Sunday, July 3 2022 at 9:28 pm GMT+0000
Bitcoin (BTC) has been tiptoeing across the middle-line of the regression channel pulled from the late March peak, unable to post any remarkable uptick.
The most recent recovery attempt proved short-lived and the crypto-king dropped back towards the mid-June lows, rekindling the medium-term downtrend.
Technically, the falling simple moving averages are endorsing the continuation of the current trend in motion while the oscillators flipped harshly lower, conveying a picture where the negative impetus has jump-started. The ROC failed to conquer the June top and dropped back below zero, while the stochastic reclaimed a negative charge following a failed attempt to jump over its equilibrium line, both promoting additional bearish developments in the coming sessions.
So, sellers’ eyes are currently on the June 18th low of 17,600, where a decisive violation will bolster selling interest initially towards the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the recent minor recovery around 15,000. A clear close below that bar could see the price plummeting towards the 12,400 – 12,000 zone of congested highs posted between August and September 2020, encapsulating the 227.2% Fibonacci level.
In the alternative scenario, where the 17,600 base manages to put strong footing under the price, Bitcoin may attempt to step over the middle-line of the channel and the neighboring 20-day simple moving average to tackle the recent high around 21,900 posted on June 26th. Successfully overstepping this barrier will likely confirm an extension towards the May 15th bottom at 25,400 near which the 50-day simple moving average resides. If buying pressures overwhelm, the next destination could be the May 26th inside low of 28,000.
To summarize, Bearish risks amplified after the recent recovery attempt faltered in the vicinity of the middle-line of the regression channel, and a drop below 17,600 will confirm additional deterioration of the medium-term outlook. Only a sustainable move above 21,900 could inject some optimism for a more meaningful recovery.
